Will trade wars persist after the US presidential election? That is a question I see being pondered by many intelligence analysts. Many believe that the Obama administration has opened the door to China on a trade which is really bad news for the US economy and the American people. Some see Obama’s negotiation with the Asian nations as nothing more than appeasement of their wrong doings. After all, what is the use of trade deficits if the Chinese are not going to buy our products?
Indeed, they might not buy our goods right now, but they certainly can buy enough to create an economic bulge in their own economy to counterbalance whatever the United States does. Will trade wars persist after the US presidential election? Some say that it already is beginning. In fact, some political analyst tells us that China may use the economic downturn as an excuse to increase its defense spending. That could be true, but, if so, then that means the US military budget will increase too.
What do you think? Will trade wars continue? You betcha. That means that we have a lot of work to do to keep our economic ship on course. It means we have to deal with the political rhetoric, which is at an all-time high, and we have to deal with the media who seems determined to make President Obama’s Administration responsible for every economic problem in the world. It also means that we have to figure out how to bring the leadership of the Chinese market to the negotiating table.
If China will not come to the negotiating table then who will? Some say that we should start with our European counterparts, but that may be difficult given the anti-US sentiment in Europe and the sense that Europe is using the US to bail itself out of the recession. Okay, so, who might we begin to negotiate with? Iran, for one thing. Although Iran has a reputation for lying and cheating, they are also not going to cut off ties with Iran’s oil company, which accounts for about a third of their revenue, and therefore they need our help.
Of course, the big question is, Will the US get serious about negotiating the terms of trade? We have become the bad boy, so to speak, in the world and unfortunately that has a stigma of its own. We are now the No. 1 Investor in the world, second only to China and third only to Japan, and that really does make us a “bad boy.”
The question is whether we can maintain our pre-eminence as a nation and our economic pre-eminence as well. Will our political leaders go to the mat and actually negotiate a fair deal for all parties involved? Do we have the stomach for that? If we cannot stomach the political heat then it is safe to say that we will not be able to withstand the eventual effects of trade wars.
How long will these political infernos last? Some experts suggest that we may already be nearing the end of the Obama years, which could mean another four or five years of trade wars, more likely. If that happens, how do we avoid this outcome? Well, as I mentioned above, if the political leadership in both countries can’t stomach the heat from their own people, it is time for them to get over it and start to negotiate some type of a reasonable agreement, otherwise we may see an escalation in fighting that will result in even greater loss of life, more destroyed property and more ruined economy. Please consider all this.
In other words, we must be very careful what we do, as far as trade wars are concerned. They can last as long as we want them to. So, consider this issue out for your own country and let’s hope that it does not come to pass. Perhaps you might wish to join me in saying so in a subsequent e-mails. Let’s keep America safe, as it has been my policy all along